Incredible articulation of why big tech platforms don’t seem to care about their users

“Mark Zuckerberg in Warhammer Total War portrait smirk” c/o Lexica

It feels like one of those timeless patterns of history where a ruler in any domain — whether an Emperor, a Founder CEO, or even a teacher in a classroom — initially serves his people, but when that ruler acquires too much power over a long period of time, he starts to believe the people serve him. I’m sure there’s a wise Confucius proverb describing precisely this…

Highly recommend: https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/how-web-platforms-collapse-the-facebook

Direct quotes:

Why do I need to log in to Reddit to read comments? Why can’t I fix a spelling error on Twitter? Why can’t I find the names of the band members on Spotify? Why is the whole first page of Google search results sometimes filled with paid advertising? Why does TikTok send all my private data to China?

It’s obvious that these companies didn’t do focus groups or market research before making these decisions. Or if they did, they must have ignored what they learned.

I’ve focused here on Facebook, but there’s a larger lesson here. Web platforms don’t fail because of the competition. They don’t self-destruct because they are weak. The collapse comes because they are strong. They lose the thread because of their dominance and power, which gives their leaders the mindset of authoritarian rulers.

The solution is simple: *Serve the users, instead of manipulating them*

The financial casino isn’t over; The financial casino will only grow

The explosion of risk assets during covid was but an amuse bouche for what is going to happen this decade and probably beyond.

GME and Dogecoin and Rolexes and Air Jordans were just a precursor for a world where just about every imaginable asset (of *some* value and duration) has a real-time price and is traded on a global digital marketplace. This will include trading of people (their income streams, anyway), memes, all forms of property, prediction markets, and much more.

The financial casino isn’t over. It’s still in the early innings. Everyone is becoming an investor, and they have no choice.

Some trends driving this:

1. Given the enormous debt and lack of real (productivity driven) growth constraining the world’s richest nations (especially the US), currency debasement is the only practicable long-term political choice; thus, the money printers will continue to brr brr, and probably at an accelerating rate. Liquidity won’t be the problem; capturing and retaining real value will be

2. Software is steadily creating digital representations of all physical assets; once digitalized, these assets are easily financialized, securitized, traded, whatever. Trust isn’t the issue here, since physical assets ultimately derive legitimacy from the meat world of local governments and law enforcement

3. Blockchain (encompassing NFTs and tokens) is creating trustworthy representations of all digital assets. And as is pretty clear from what’s happening in cryptos thus far, the financialization of these assets will blow peoples’ minds. These digital assets will explode in quantity and aggregate value as the world increasingly moves its economic, political, and social activity onto the digital layer (ie the metaverse)

So we’ve established that there will be a lot more capital in the system (1). There will be a lot more assets (2 and 3). The arena will become increasingly global (despite all this recent talk of de-globalization which largely benefits conservative politicians and onshore industries, aggregate human self-interest will win out eventually and that is towards a better, faster, and cheaper global marketplace). And all of this will be enabled and accelerated by software and digitization.

Yes I sound like an off rocker tech permabull. I’ve also placed my bets accordingly.

There’s a lot more to write about here, mostly downstream effects of (1), such as widening income inequality and sustained real inflation (due to financial repression) growing the number of have-nots, and forcing those have-nots to make ever riskier financial choices.

I’ve been on cold medicine for the past few days and my head is foggy so there may be more nonsense here than usual, and as before, these thoughts are worth what you’re paying for them

cheers I love you

“You have to remember that in today’s world GDP is a very poor measure of economic health”

Lately I’ve been reading Detlev’s book, Paper Money Collapse. In particular I found the chapter on cryptocurrency and the chapter on solutions to the global monetary debt crisis to be extremely clear and practical and informative.

This online interview he did with ValueWalk was also quite good. I’ve shared a few of my favorite excerpts below:

But by 2009 I had become very pessimistic on our financial system as a result of my study of Austrian School economics and my own experience after almost two decades in the business

I am convinced this crisis is misunderstood by most. We are witnessing the failure of our fiat money system. This will get much worse. I try to position myself for it.

It is no surprise to me that the Austrian School has such a strong appeal for real-life entrepreneurs and risk-takers. No other school of thought understands entrepreneurship, risk-taking, capital accumulation and capital maintenance, relative prices and the real-life elements of time and error

I think a gigantic intellectual bubble exists in which most financial market participants operate. That bubble will probably only get pricked by real events, i.e. the massive crisis that is now unfolding.

In fact, one of the first historic examples of a paper money system outside Medieval China, was Massachusetts, which, in 1690 when still a British colony, issued paper money to fund military excursions into French Quebec. Then there were the famous continentals, a paper money issued by the Continental Congress in 1775 to fund the Revolutionary War. These early experiments with paper money ended like they always do – with worthless paper tickets

…from 1879 to 1914 there was no meaningful deflation or inflation in the system at all. This was a time of hard, inflexible and stable money. This was a period– in the US and globally – of solid economic growth, rising living standards and growing international trade, and of harmonious economic relationships between countries

The methodology of the Austrians is superior, but the methodology of mainstream macroeconomics, and Keynesianism in particular, is appealing to politicians. These schools perceive the economy as an organism that sometimes performs below potential, which then provides a convenient excuse for the politicians to get involved.

You have to remember that in today’s world GDP is a very poor measure of economic health. In the EU, 50 percent of recorded economic activity is conducted by the public sector. In my adopted home country, the UK, it is 53 percent. The public sector spends more money than all private individuals and corporations put together. This is more socialism than capitalism.

Interviewer: If you were Ben Bernanke what would you do now?
Detlev: Abdicate. His mandate is contradictory and impossible. He is supposed to provide a stable medium of exchange for the American public, and at the same time provide an unlimited backstop for Wall Street and Washington. Well, it is one or the other. We already know which one he chose.

Michael Saylor is a bull bull bull – a bunch of notes from his podcast appearances

Here are some news stories if you’re not familiar with Saylor’s background and recent actions:

He’s even re-directed one of his domains, hope.com, to Microstrategy’s list of curated resources to learn more about bitcoin.

NOTES below.

Michael Saylor on the Bitcoin Audible podcast

  • Bitcoin is first closed energy system, monetary energy network
  • Try to send power from LA to Tokyo, you lose 20-40% in shipping costs or 2% per month if stored in a battery
  • Shipping 3K pounds of gold from NY to Tokyo would cost $250K and take a week; to send $100M in bitcoin costs $5 and one hour
  • Electricity was a tech platform
  • Penicillin probably greatest technology for mankind, extended lifespans 20 years, but gets little credit and attention
  • Money supply inflating 7% a year
  • Gold losing guaranteed 2% per year or more due to supply expansion
  • “There’s gonna be fracking equivalent for gold”
  • Inflation is a vector but CPI is an arbitrary scalar that doesn’t reflect the assets you really want (eg, a nice house, a university education)
  • Negative real yield on cash is 20% range this year
  • Long bond right now is saying, give us all your money and we’ll give you 2% back per year and at the end, return just 30-40% of your principle
  • Choices came down to, is it gold silver or bitcoin?
  • Commercial real estate, equities are too expensive
  • Focused on Bitcoin’s market dominance in PoW coins that are doing decentralized SoV
  • Believes a dominant network that dematerializes something, when it gets valued at $100B has “won”, and will go to $1T, $2T, like Apple, Amazon. In this sense Bitcoin already won
  • “There isn’t any winning investment strategy other than technology!”
  • When a company stops growing, that means their tech isn’t cutting edge anymore
  • Rockefeller did everything Bezos did, 100 years earlier, Bezos basically copied Rockefeller’s playbook
  • Stock-2-flow for bitcoin is actually infinite if you look out 100 years
  • Other bitcoin benefits: Liquidate anytime, audit anytime, ship anywhere anytime, now tell me how gold is gonna do that?
  • Looks for “paradigm shifts driven by elemental inventions”
  • When we used wood, we could build 2 stories; with masonry, that became 5 stories; but steel let us build 100 story buildings
  • “Steel is elemental to civil engineering. Take it away, all of modern architecture collapses”
  • “Without aluminum, there’s no aviation industry”
  • Rockefeller drove down energy prices by 1000x
  • Crypto gold is bedrock of modern digital economy
  • If you build your (corporate) treasury with gold, it’s like taking a voyage in a wood ship, bitcoin is a steel haul freighter

Michael Saylor on the Saifedean podcast

  • “A bank is a fiat miner” – Saifedean
  • Saylor says main reason to position bitcoin as SoV / asset like an Apple or Google stock or gold is because it won’t threaten governments, but if you market as privacy and better currency then you’re inviting regulation or banning
  • “Destiny of money is to be encrypted” – Saylor, fiat is easier to print and steal

Saylor on Pomp’s podcast

  • Microstrategy stock went from $330 to 42c after dotcom bubble
  • Forgot he even tweeted about bitcoin dying until the recent purchase
  • Would never buy 30yr bond at 2%
  • Maybe the longest tenured public tech co CEO
  • risk free rate used to be 5%!
  • asset inflation ~7% but now 25-30%
  • Microstrategy biz model got better thru covid, reduced cost structure (no travel, no conferences) and customers stuck around (govts, big biz)
  • Limit to how much stock buyback you can do without moving price, would take Microstrategy 4 years
  • Hated remote work, but adjusted now
  • Went thru all asset options for the $500M cash on their balance sheet:
  • Commercial RE isn’t fairly priced right now, impaired asset
  • FANG tech stocks overpriced now
  • Considered precious metals but bitcoin better
  • Wants something that can be cut in half but also go up 10x
  • All winning cos were tech cos in their time from Nestle to Boeing
  • Looked at defi and other coins but thinks bitcoin’s focus on PoW and SoV and all this energy invested means it’s got best chance
  • “It’s already won”; Believes $100B is this threshold after which you win
  • Vetted bitcoin institutional exchanges, custodians, got to know teams well, then did 1000s or more transactions every day over period of time
  • Confident he didn’t materially move the market, “let the market come to you”
  • “Every CEO had a lot of assumptions shaken this year” from TikTok to remote work to macroeconomy
  • Putting bitcoin in corporate treasury “It’s like the 4 minute mile”. Didn’t think it could be done, now someone has done it and next year dozens will do it
  • To copy his move, a nimble public co takes 6 mos to do this, a rational big public co takes 9-12 mos, expects more to follow late this year and into next
  • It’s not 10x better than gold, 100-1000x better
  • 3500 publicly traded cos, $5T in their treasuries
  • Asset inflation went from 6-7% to 25-30% (that’s where he gets the 2-3% loss each month for holding cash), love his metaphor of melting ice cube
  • “There’s a negative real yield on anything else I can buy”
  • $200T or more of negative real yield on treasuries, precious metals, etc, bitcoin’s upside is not just gold mcap
  • Wonders why Dorsey with $10B between Square and Twitter doesn’t buy $500M?
  • Pomp believes Dorsey has more pressing problems eg, dealing with activist investors
  • Amazed at the community ethos of bitcoin

Some excerpts from his book, The Mobile Wave [Amazon]

  • Whenever teenage girls and corporate CEOs covet the same new technology, something extraordinary is happening.
    -And the adult population will be impacted just as much, and perhaps more, as many physical objects we find in our pockets and purses today—like keys, wallets, credit cards, calendars, cameras, recorders, maps, and mirrors—become software, too,
  • “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.” This quote is loosely attributed to Trotsky and its idea applies to our situation today. Your business might not be interested in software, but software is interested in your business.
  • The Agricultural Revolution took thousands of years to run its course. The Industrial Revolution required a few centuries. The Information Revolution, propelled by mobile technology will likely reshape our world on the order of decades.

Saylor’s 3 hour podcast with Peter McCormack is also great, but I didn’t take notes for it.

Oh…he also did a good long podcast on domain names with DomainSherpa:

  • Majored in aeronautics/astronautics, history of science
  • Domains: Shorter is better, easier to spell, English
  • Parallels to vanity phone numbers and license plates which are still an active market
  • By 1995 it was clear to him how valuable domains would be, bot a bunch like Angel.com and Alarm.com etc
  • Spent $100-200K for voice.com (me: later sold to BlockOne for $30M)
  • Started businesses with Alarm.com (home automation) and Strategy.com (personalized intelligence)
  • Missing piece is creative thing, fantastical thinking, references fantasy fiction a lot
  • English has most words in world (is this true?)
  • Enormous value to learning English, 2-3x multiplier or more in earnings
  • Lives in Miami Beach
  • In domain industry an English domain is worth 100x more than comparable in Spanish
  • Domain names = Commercial real estate
  • The commercial RE value will move to domains as world dematerializes
  • Virtual wave comes after mobile wave
  • People have rediscovered criticality of owning own domain
  • Thinks voice.com is actually worth $1B
  • Compares to art, rather own and lease or license it instead of selling the asset outright (similar to real estate, bitcoin)
  • “Domains are new digital asset class”
  • Podcast host: believes there are ~50K domain names with truly premium value (host owns pristine.com)

Dropping this here…because, well…*shrugs*. Never a dull moment in 2020:

Jeff Bezos on Amazon’s culture and strategy: “Customers are always beautifully, wonderfully dissatisfied”

This is from his 2015 Amazon letter to shareholders [source]. So much good stuff on what makes Amazon such a sustaining high performing culture, how to align vastly different business units and products, what challenges he’s faced – and the lessons he’s learned from them – as the company has grown and grown and grown.

On alignment and shared values

[AWS and Amazon retail] share a distinctive organizational culture that cares deeply about and acts with conviction on a small number of principles. I’m talking about customer obsession rather than competitor obsession, eagerness to invent and pioneer, willingness to fail, the patience to think long-term, and the taking of professional pride in operational excellence.

There are many advantages to a customer-centric approach, but here’s the big one: customers are always beautifully, wonderfully dissatisfied, even when they report being happy and business is great. Even when they don’t yet know it, customers want something better, and your desire to delight customers will drive you to invent on their behalf.

On managing big company process and complexity

As companies get larger and more complex, there’s a tendency to manage to proxies. This comes in many shapes and sizes, and it’s dangerous, subtle, and very Day 2. A common example is process as proxy. Good process serves you so you can serve customers. But if you’re not watchful, the process can become the thing. This can happen very easily in large organizations. The process becomes the proxy for the result you want. You stop looking at outcomes

The outside world can push you into Day 2 if you won’t or can’t embrace powerful trends quickly. If you fight them, you’re probably fighting the future. Embrace them and you have a tailwind.

On decision making

Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being slow. Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions. If you’re good at course correcting, being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure.

Recognize true misalignment issues early and escalate them immediately. Sometimes teams have different objectives and fundamentally different views. They are not aligned. No amount of discussion, no number of meetings will resolve that deep misalignment. Without escalation, the default dispute resolution mechanism for this scenario is exhaustion. Whoever has more stamina carries the decision.

Some decisions are consequential and irreversible or nearly irreversible – one-way doors – and these decisions must be made methodically, carefully, slowly, with great deliberation and consultation. If you walk through and don’t like what you see on the other side, you can’t get back to where you were before. We can call these Type 1 decisions. But most decisions aren’t like that – they are changeable, reversible – they’re two-way doors. If you’ve made a suboptimal Type 2 decision, you don’t have to live with the consequences for that long. You can reopen the door and go back through. Type 2 decisions can and should be made quickly by high judgment individuals or small groups.