On a flight back to Austin for holidays. Just read this Needham & Company research report on bitcoin which carries a price target of $848 (bitcoin just crossed $900 in its recent jump). Among institutional researchers and analysts that I’ve followed, Needham seem to “get” bitcoin best. Some notes from my pdf:
Bitcoin’s daily liquidity is equivalent to a mid-cap stock, and its daily return volatility is equivalent to a small-cap stock.
The US daily dollar volume = $28M
GBTC – one of the only exchange listed products that provide bitcoin exposure – has a market cap of $160M and $9M in daily trading volume
Worldwide gold supplies have grown annually between 1-2%. The US monetary base historically grew between 3-5% a year until 2008 when it began to grow 20, 30% a year
Immediately after Brexit, bitcoin was among the top three assets to show a price increase, alongside gold and the US dollar
An estimated 75% of bitcoin is held as digital gold – a store of value investment. This is about $10B of bitcoin’s current $14B market cap. By comparison, the worldwide gold market is $7 trillion, and $84 billion is invested in gold ETFs.
In the ongoing blocksize debate, Needham believes Core is “prudently conservative” given the value at stake, and agrees with the philosophy of shifting innovation to 2nd layer services, to the edges of the network.
Here are more notes from Needham’s research call with well-known bitcoin participants.